Friday, November 14, 2008

Winter Is Coming I am Excited

All weather models are in full agreement that the northeast and eastern canada will experience a very cold blast of cold air. This will bring lake effects snows for Ontario among many other areas. Their is a possibility of a noreaster or 2 in the long range too for Atlantic Canada. The Euro shows that the cold air will stay in place with some relaxation after thanksgiving then the pattern repeats. It appears the weather models want to blow up and storm or two. One of them appears to happen by the middle of next week. These storms could impact Nova Scotia and possibly Southern New Brunwick, Prince Edward Island. It will all depend on where the snow/rain line is.

Here's the Noaa's prediction for the 6-10 day temperatures

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

8-14 day temperatures

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

Now let's look at the arctic oscillation[AO] which is one of major players for bringing cold arctic air into north eastern America and Eastern Canada. When it is negative.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml


As you see it remains negative throughout the period.


Also look at the negative arctic oscillation[NAO] which if negative also brings down cold arctic air.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

It also remains negative thoughout the period to somewhat neutral.

Finally the Pacific/North American Pattern. When positive it brings helps bring cold weather to Northeastern America and Eastern Canada

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_mrf.shtml

It also says mostly positive throughout the period.

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